Modelled conversions explained (Consent Mode)
If you have seen 'modelled' next to some of your conversions and wondered whether they are real, here is the honest explanation: what modelling is, how Google does it, and how much weight to put on it.
What a modelled conversion is
A modelled conversion is one Google could not measure directly, usually because the user declined cookies or a privacy limit blocked the tag, so Google estimated it instead. Rather than report zero for those users, Google uses the patterns from users it can measure, plus the anonymous signals it still receives, to estimate how many conversions happened.
How the modelling works, briefly
- Users who consent are measured directly and fully.
- Users who decline still send anonymous, cookieless pings through Consent Mode.
- Google compares the known, consented behaviour with those anonymous signals and estimates the missing conversions.
- The result is reported as modelled data, blended into your totals.
Are you getting modelled conversions, or just a hole?
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Modelling is well-founded and far better than pretending the declined users do not exist, but it is an estimate, not a per-person record. It needs enough traffic and conversions to be reliable, and it works at the level of totals and trends, not individual user journeys. For budget and channel decisions it is genuinely useful; for debugging a single order it is not the tool.
Why it only works if the plumbing is right
Modelled conversions only appear when Consent Mode is set up properly, ideally Advanced, with your consent banner correctly wired in. Get that wrong and you do not get modelling, you just get the hole, the declined users vanish entirely and your reports understate reality.
Get modelling switched on properly
We configure Advanced Consent Mode so your declined conversions are modelled, not lost. The audit comes off any build.
See how it works & pricingRelated guides
Consent Mode v2 explained Tracking users who reject cookies Consent Mode vs cookie banner All guidesDatahound are analytics and ad-tracking specialists. We fix broken GA4, Google Ads, Meta and server-side tracking. See pricing · All guides · Back to datahound.agency
Modelled conversions: common questions
What are modelled conversions in Google Analytics and Ads?
They are conversions Google could not measure directly, usually because of consent or privacy limits, so Google estimated them from the behaviour of measurable users and anonymous signals. They fill the gap left by declined or blocked tracking.
Are modelled conversions accurate?
They are a sound estimate at the level of totals and trends, and far better than ignoring the missing users, but they are not a per-person record and need enough traffic to be reliable. Trust them for budget decisions, not for debugging a single order.
Why don't I see any modelled conversions?
Usually because Consent Mode is not set up, or is set to Basic rather than Advanced, or the consent banner is not wired in. Without that plumbing, declined users are lost rather than modelled.